Virgin to lose West Coast?

[Nawdic]

Hmmm... Could this be another NXEC moment, I wonder...

[Geo Ghost]

Hmmm... Could this be another NXEC moment, I wonder...

We'll find out soon enough. Though I had trouble taking the report seriously after the second paragraph begun with the following:

The Virgin king-

[Nawdic]

BREAKING NEWS!

BBC:- Decision about new operator to be made at 0700 BST.

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BREAKING NEWS!

BBC:- Decision about new operator to be made at 0700 BST.

ahhh, i just read an article on BBC news, (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19264614) i'll F5 that, as i assume that'll be the one they update with the result later on.

[teccuk]

Oh god. Just heard this on radio 4. First Group got it. Oh god.

Abandon all hope. It will be hard to blame FG given the DfT are asking for huge premiums.

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Apparently Virgin Rail are thinking of mounting a legal challenge against it. If FG are succesful though, they're due to hold it until 2026. That's a looong time

Although, I'd quite like to see a FirstGroup livery on Pendolinos, i think it'd look quite nice. But I seem to be alone in liking FGs liveries

[JamieLei]

Hmmm, I don't think it's the end of the world. Livery changes are purely cosmetic.

What I'm interested in is this figure of 5.5bn. A lot less than he speculative 7bn and even less than virgin's 6bn. What are the real figures?

[Nawdic]

BREAKING NEWS!!

FirstGroup gain WCML.

"Like" this on Facebook to express your displeasure.

https://www.facebook.com/ReinstateVirgi ... 5559812380

[Geo Ghost]

BREAKING NEWS!!

FirstGroup gain ECML.

They most certainly have not.

FirstGroup said it would "offer substantial improvements in the quality and frequency of services".

If it ain't broke, don't fix it... Improvements like what? Services are frequent and of very good quality anyway. Or is this FirstGroup trying to dismiss Sir RB's claims.

[Gord]

Nice distraction from yesterday's rail related news story...they really know how to plan these press releases to a tee.

[Kevo00]

I give them until 2015 at the very latest before there has to be a bailout. FirstGroup will implode and all their franchises will have to be re-let. First's shares have already taken a 6% dive this morning.

[JamieLei]

The word from the horse's mouth.

http://mediaroom.virgintrains.co.uk/201 ... anson.html

[JamieLei]

Virgin were outbid by £700m.
http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2012/08/ ... -west.html

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I give them until 2015 at the very latest before there has to be a bailout. FirstGroup will implode and all their franchises will have to be re-let. First's shares have already taken a 6% dive this morning.

That would be quite an interesting, yet explosive chain of events if it happened. I'd also laugh if Virgin snapped them all up.

[Geo Ghost]

Virgin were outbid by £700m.
http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2012/08/ ... -west.html

£700m that surely could have actually been better invested in the line.

Anyone else feel that FirstGroup seems to be taking quite a lot of franchises? Surely there must be a limit on that one.
Hmm, maybe Virgin should take the Great Western from First

[Dave]

If First f*** this up and lose the franchise, and thus all the other franchises they have, they will ALL have to go back into national ownership in the interim.

No doubt the end of privatisation in this way.

[Geo Ghost]

No doubt the end of privatisation in this way.

I guess now that a lot of the stuff has been heavily invested, we could go back to a nationalised rail system heh
Interestingly though, just over 15 years on since the start of privatisation (or around that) and it's about now we start to really see the effects. Some very good things did come out of it, but some... not so good. I would love to see what things would have been like without privatisation. Kind of a "what if"scenario.

[61653]

That would be a pretty painful process, but the industry would probably be in better shape afterwards, once the dust has settled. It might even be ideal for some of FirstGroup's current franchises to be operated directly by the DaFT during the electrification and engineering works- Great Western, Transpennine, Thameslink/GN and Scotrail will all face a fair amount of disruption over the next few years as wires are strung up, London Bridge & Reading are redeveloped, and the 'Northern Hub' is constructed. Once this work is done, a structure similar to that in many European countries (particularly Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands- with a state owned operator supplemented by third-party private operators providing genuine competition) would be more appropriate.

[John]

FirstGroup will implode and all their franchises will have to be re-let. First's shares have already taken a 6% dive this morning.

I'm not an economist, but that is a real danger. A 6% dive really highlights what the city thinks - and the huge amount of negative press this will receive over the next few days / weeks might do even more damage.

The problem FirstGroup faces, is that any bad news on the WestCoast will ruin the share prices for the entire group, along with credit ratings. It could quite quickly snowball and implode the entire company - including the bus side of things.

The military has also learnt its lesson with getting everyone to submit expensive bids and prototypes, with half the industry ending up bankrupt. As a result they now fund the preparing of big bids and prototypes, to ensure companies aren't putting themselves at risk. At £14million per failed bid, I wonder how long the rail industry will sustain it, before more companies withdraw.


As a question from the non rail geek, what are the chances of Virgin starting some form of open access on the west coast?

[Dave]

As a question from the non rail geek, what are the chances of Virgin starting some form of open access on the west coast?

None - the paths just don't exist for it.