Virgin to lose West Coast?

[JamieLei]

This is such a big development that it needs its own topic.

Please read this entire article before commenting: Telegraph - Threat to Richard Branson’s train empire

Can it be true? Will the DfT repeat the mistakes of East Cost? Given that the annual transport budget only runs at about £20bn a year, and that includes roads, rails and airports too, then an extra £1bn over the course of the franchise is a hell of A LOT.

I hope that Virgin keep it. Here's to hoping that the government is sane enough to reject FirstGroup's bid.

[thphwh]

I hope that Virgin keep it. Here's to hoping that the government is sane enough to reject FirstGroup's bid.

Me too. Although Virgin are sometimes a pain in the butt, FirstGroup would be worse for such an established piece of railway.

[Chris]

I think after the National Express debacle that Virgin will hold it.

[EXTspotter]

I wouldn't be surprised if First won. Cabinet ministers are around for such a short period of time before they make an error and are shuffled around like an idiot with a pack of happy families. At this stage the government seems to be running around like headless chickens trying to work out where they can take money and "get away with it". An extra billion pounds would sound tempting to this mantra, even if it'll never be recouped as First would have bailed long before the lions share of this money is paid given half a chance (see FGW) or if their ridiculous figures are shown to be a load of rubbish and they run themselves into the ground (see GNER/NXEC).

[JamieLei]

In the end, it's not about our likes and dlslikes about existing TOCs or liveries. First West Coast would be run pretty much the same way as VWC is run today. It's about how much money they would pay the government, and how much that leaves for investment in staff and passenger services. We'll see..

[Redirect Left]

As previously mentioned, the sane course of action would be to keep Virgin. But, something tells me the government won't turn down an extra billion... No matter how likely or unlikely it is to work out. Sadly, my vote would go to First winning it...

[John]

Could go both ways.

The treasury will want maximum money - not who promises the most. The fact that FGW bailed out of paying £800million and the whole GNER/NXEC saga will make them cautious. And they won't want the national audit office ripping them to pieces.

From a political risk point of view - he won't be around at the end so it doesn't matter. However, he will face scrutiny up front, which every way he chooses.

Choice 1: Virgin
Arguement - it will cost the taxpayer 1 billion. Response - bailed out of paying nearly 1 billion a year ago, due to Labour contract. Contract is unrealistic, look at east coast (also caused by Labour). Work out how much east coast cost - say it cost the taxpayer 1.2 billion, then trot out the saving of .2. Tory will use operator who can be trusted etc. etc.

Choice 1: First
Arguement - See all responses above + potential for criticism from audit office etc. Response to that? Well, they will get us a billion more...


Granted, my view is biased - but it seems purely from a political point of view upfront, choosing First will result in more negative press, which is something DC won't want right now.

Although this is a politician, they'll probably just spin it to theirs hearts content anyway...

[edit]grammar

[Chris]

You know Justine is a woman right?

[EXTspotter]

I think he was referring to David Cameron, hence DC in the line above... Would make sense anyway.

[John]

I think he was referring to David Cameron, hence DC in the line above... Would make sense anyway.

Both - it was more "he" referring to politicians in general, then specifically to Justine.

[Ameecher]

Well seeing as the bidding process is anonymous and the bidders are excluded from when bids are submitted until the point where the winner is announced, I don't know how anyone could know this.

[John]

Sounds like Richard's letter got "leaked" - and I assume he would have a fairly accurate source for First's contract.

But yes, the article does state:

FirstGroup is thought to have bid

I imagine he is getting in early to try and influence the outcome.

[JamieLei]

Lots of MPs like to get involved in DfT decisions. Just look at Thameslink Stock Procurement. Since a good quarter of the country's MPs will be travelling regularly to London by Virgin Trains, there's a lot of political backing for them, and their excellent First Class service!

[Pilot]

their excellent First Class service!

All 4 Carriages of it? I've always thought that 4 First Class Carriages on that route was Over the top, considering that the Standard ends up Crammed, but then, I guess that's the reason for the 2 extra Carriages.

[JamieLei]

When Standard is crammed, First Class is often very well loaded. As in almost every seat occupied.

[andel]

Virgin probably know as the contract is in standstill - a 10 period in which to lodge a legal challenge.

[Pilot]

When Standard is crammed, First Class is often very well loaded. As in almost every seat occupied.

Last time I was on one when it was Crammed, we got moved into First by the Train Manager.

[audigex]

Yeah, declassifying first seems to be reasonably standard tactic in case of overloading in standard - particularly on the weekends when first class isn't as full.

[Ameecher]

4 first carriages in an eleven car set is acceptable. Can't help feeling that 3 in a 9 car set might be better.

[JamieLei]

People can be squeezed into standard though. People standing in First is unacceptable. Thus for the peak hour trains leaving Euston to have every seat full in First is very very good business sense but almost pushing it. (This all from a business view of course).