Russia-Ukraine Conflict

[TinyMusic]

According to CNN, "Ukraine's new leaders accused Russia of declaring war", due to Russian military activity in Crimea. Oh dear.

Discuss.

On a side note, someone in my school hopes that this will be World War 3!

EDIT: Crimea is now part of Russia.

[bjgttd]

No one has declared any war. Hopefully it will stay this way.

[Transportman]

Russia has not yet declared war, but the whole situation is getting more messy with the day. I hope things improve soon.

[kamnet]

There's no declared state of war, but there is very clearly an occupation, based on a very visibly false claim that Russian citizens are being threatened in the Crimean region. The Ukrainian army is potentially under siege at three military bases, and reportedly the head of Ukraine's naval forces has defected to Russia, along with the former prime minister.

[bvoice360]

They are talking about imposing visa and trade restrictions on Russia, providing Ukraine with financial help and kicking Russia out of the G8 if they actually declare war -these will hopefully sort the situation out because there's going to be no planned counter-invasion

[Zakos]

I think us 'Muricans should step in and save the day, like we always do.

[JamieLei]

The complicated issue at stake is that many Crimeans actually are supportive of Russia, and identify more with Russia than with Ukraine. As far as I could tell, Russia was mainly interested in Crimea, not so much the rest of Ukraine.

Most importantly, Crimea now has an elected pro-Russian provincial government. The west can't interfere in the name of 'protecting democracy', since Crimeans have expressed their preferences in the polling station.

The ideal outcome of course would be to resolve this by international law and referendum. But that requires the rest of Ukraine to also agree to a solution, since it is taking place within the sovereign boundaries of the country.

[Beul]

That sounds like a strange POV. It would be like France invading regions of Swizerland and telling the world it is ok since most of the people in those regions are french...

[Hyronymus]

That sounds like a strange POV. It would be like France invading regions of Swizerland and telling the world it is ok since most of the people in those regions are french...

Or like Kerry said: It looks as we're back in the 19th century. Back then the above worked well for several nations.

[kamnet]

Poland is reportedly dispatching tanks to the Ukraine border, believing that if Russia conducts a full-on assault on Ukraine, it won't take them long to sweep through and attempt a similar assault on Poland.

Reportedly, Ukraine military jets have now taken to the sky and turned back Russian jets crossing over Ukraine air space.

Russia has called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

[Zakos]

How about that alleged ultimatum?

[kamnet]

Russia is officially denying it, which is part of the reason they've called the council.

[Dave]

The title will be changed, there's no war right now. Now might be a good time to reconsider your avatar, TinyMusic.

That sounds like a strange POV. It would be like France invading regions of Swizerland and telling the world it is ok since most of the people in those regions are french...

In Russia's defence, the Crimea is pro-Russian. The west believe in self-determination.

[Redirect Left]

USA and (i think?) UK signed a treaty when Crimea was won, that stated they would protect and defend Crimea should Russia try to grasp it back, or something a long those lines.

Question is, will they keep good on their word, at the risk of things getting super serious, or will they hope everyone has forgotten about this treaty signed in the 90s and they can dodge out of it all?

edit: quick googling reveals the UK did sign this treaty, so if we're made to act good on it... yeah, things might get unpleasant.

[vear]

Russia has never really declared war to other state. No, really. It might be a fact not known widely in the west, but back in 1939, seventeen days after Nazi Germany invaded Poland, the Soviet Union officially stated they were coming to help provide safety for Russians living in just invaded Poland, claiming our country was non-existent, thus posing a threat to the Soviet Union. Needless to say, it was a pure military aggression against Poland. It is no other here! Russia's official intentions towards Ukraine are to bring peace and stabilization in a country, which they don't like getting closer to the EU than it used to be to Russia. Obviously, the only reason is the imperialistic ambition of Putin. Even though it has not been officially called thus, it is war.

One strange thing, which might suggest Putin has actually gone insane, is they don't really need Crimea for anything. There's nothing of interest when it comes to military or industrial purposes, as the whole region's economy is mostly based on tourism (as a matter of fact, enormous numbers of Russians come there for holidays). As far as access to the Black Sea is concerned, they've always had it. Force distribution on the Black Sea shore? They've already had Black Sea fleet stationing in Sevastopol, Crimea. It's more of a power showcase, as they will gain nothing physically important. Care about Russians living in Crimea might sound a tempting excuse, but nobody knowledgeable about Russia's deeds would believe that; Russia could be suspected of anything but taking real care about its citizens.

Crimean citizens are mostly ethnically Russian nowadays (not unanimously though, approx. 15% of Crimeans are Tatar and 25% Ukrainian) thanks to Stalin and his policies. He was the one responsible for first causing famine across Ukraine in 1930s, which led to a great death toll all over the country, including Crimean Tatars (ethnically native to Crimea), and expelled all of them to Kazakhstan after WW2 - those living there currently are ones who came back in 1990s, after dissolution of the Soviet Union. However, keep in mind that just being ethnically Russian doesn't automatically make one being for separatism, or for Russian takeover. Lots of people inhabiting the peninsula find themselves just "Crimean" and used to be fine living in an autonomous republic, in spite of overall situation in Ukraine not being top of the line.

I really hope that all the powers that be, including but not limited to the EU, NATO and the UN will do more than just talk, call to stop and express their disdain, if necessary. Of course, it is vital that bloodshed is avoided at all costs, but personally I find that option unlikely, as it's dealing with a psycho. This psycho's name is Vladimir Putin of course. We once had a similar one in Europe and we let him freely take over Czechoslovakia when he reached for it. It didn't end quite well.

On a selfish side note, I'm happy I managed to travel across Crimea last summer, as it is unlikely the peninsula will be the same in the predictable future. Still, I hope to get there back at least once, as lots of tempting destinations still exist.

[Hans Kruzer]

All I can say - The Cold war has returned

I think they should let Crimea issue resolve itself...everytime another country steps in that has nothing to do with the conflict, poop hits the fan.

This reminds me of the Georgia incident that happened some time ago, I don't remember when; my cousin's older friend was in the Russian forces and helped occupy Georgia, told some interesting stories which I can say another day

It seems no one did anything back then, so Vlad Putin feels he can take a peice of Ukraine too

When Russia wants something, Russia gets it!

[kamnet]

Interesting, apparently Turkey may get the final say in this skirmish. According to the treaty that Russia and Turkey signed in the 1800s, Turkey will be able to re-establish a territorial claim should Crimea ever seek to gain independence. However, it can't do that if Crimea continues to be annexed to another country. This may be more the reason Russia is stepping up its actions. If it can re-annex it, then Turkey can't have it.

[Redirect Left]

Perhaps I'm missing something, but why do Russia seem so intent on reclaiming the Crimea?
Does it have lots of natural resources, is it oozing oil? or does Putin actually just want to do it to 'protect' them, seeing as Crimeans often associate with Russia more than Ukraine?

[BobDendry]

It hasn't really been explored much in the media. But I believe it falls back to Russia's Black Sea Fleet which is actually based in Crimea. With the currently revolutionary action occuring in Ukraine I would think that there are concerns in Moscow that a new regime would not be particularly friendly to Russia and may not allow the fleet to be based there any longer. Without a naval base in the south, Russia will lose a huge amount of military power (and I mean a huge amount).

In addition to that, historically Crimea had been a part of Russia for hundreds of years until Nikita Khrushchev handballed it off to Ukraine in the 1950s. Back in the USSR (heh) this move meant nothing compared to what it would mean if done today.

The legal basis for a lot of pressure on Russia regarding this, though, would be the Budapest Memorandum I believe (once again I've barely seen discussion regarding this in the media either). It was signed in 1994, by the US, UK and Russia, and essentially stated that Ukraine would have assurances on its sovereignty and security of its borders in exchange for nuclear disarmanent. I believe some people in this thread have alluded to an agreement between the UK, US and Ukraine wherein UK and US would come to Ukraine's defence. I assume you're talking about the Budapest Memorandum.

Other than that, the American media likes to play on Putin as a neo-imperialist seeking to rebuild the union. I'm not entirely sure if I'd say that, but I can certainly see the reason behind such comments.

[SquireJames]

Interesting, apparently Turkey may get the final say in this skirmish. According to the treaty that Russia and Turkey signed in the 1800s, Turkey will be able to re-establish a territorial claim should Crimea ever seek to gain independence. However, it can't do that if Crimea continues to be annexed to another country. This may be more the reason Russia is stepping up its actions. If it can re-annex it, then Turkey can't have it.

Considering that was an agreement between Tsarist Russia and the Ottoman Empire after the Crimean War in the 1850s, I can't see it holding much water today.