1st stage of Croxley rail link begins

[Dave]

You cannot deny that a lot of the resdients work in London, otherwise why are there 5tph to London (at Off Peak times), since it is 30-45 from London by rail, it will recive more people from London in the near future

Okay, at peak time, 0600 to 0900 there are 16 trains from High Wycombe to London. If we take the average train to be 3 carriages, which is pretty standard - many of the slow trains are 2 carriage 165s, some 165s are 3, and 168s are 3 or 4, so probably comes out at around 3. Say you can cram 100 people into a carriage, then that is 100*3*16 = 4,800.

4,800 people out of the ~120,000 people living in and around Wycombe. Obviously that is a small proportion of people who commute into London. And this is probably an overestimate - it is unlikely that a) you can fit 100 people in a carriage b) that everybody gets on the train at Wycombe - some of these trains are coming from Birmingham and so will already be partially full, and the slow trains stop at a load of other stations as well, so there will almost definitely be fewer people commuting from Wycombe.

If you want further evidence, for 2008/09 2,198,000 people used Wycombe station. This divided by 365 days in the year comes out as 6,022 people per day ending or starting there journey in Wycombe, and that isn't including the leisure journeys or those going to Birmingham.

Eat that haha. Excellent statistician work.

[GurraJG]

My point is that there are lots of shops in the area

How's that relevant? There are a lot more, and a lot better, shops in London.

[Dave]

Now you're nitpicking. Sign of a lost argument.

[Dave]

Now you're nitpicking. Sign of a lost argument.

No I am stating the facts, unless High Wycombe still have child workers?

Let's assume that ~50% of the population of High Wycombe conurbation are adults of working age. There are 118249 people there, that's 59125 people of working age. Let's take the 4% that are unemployed... That leaves...

Rough estimate of the total people in High Wycombe of working age that are working: 56760.

Assume that ALL of the 6022 people per day travelling through High Wycombe station are going into London (that number is likely to be half of that, but let's also assume 3000 people travel in through other means - which is far too high a number, but we'll give you the benefit of the doubt).

That means that of the 56760 that work in High Wycombe, JUST TEN PERCENT work in London!

So the other 50738 people are going to see NO BENEFIT! to boosting train services for commuters into London!

Get with the programme will you!?

[Dave]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

... suggests that I've actually over estimated the jobless population by a half percent.

[Ameecher]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

... suggests that I've actually over estimated the jobless population by a half percent.

If not more, seems to be around the 2% mark

[Dave]

Well, we'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Dave]

It doesn't matter Alan, I've just statistically proven to you that less than 10% of the working population of High Wycombe work in London.

So, you're wrong. We won't agree to disagree, because you're very, very wrong!

[Ameecher]

How much of the population is of people under 18?

3.2% is blow average by the way

Yes but we're not talking about national average are we, we are talking about Wycombe.

[GurraJG]

For god sake not everyone of its 120,000 resdients are of working age (a lot are children), if you count people are in employment, a lot of those people work in London

For god sake not everyone of those 6022 who use High Wycombe station everyday goes to London to work!

[GurraJG]

For god sake not everyone of its 120,000 resdients are of working age (a lot are children), if you count people are in employment, a lot of those people work in London

For god sake not everyone of those 6022 who use High Wycombe station everyday goes to London to work!

But a lot do!

As has been pointed out before, even if every single one of those people do work in London, it's only about 10% of the working population of High Wycombe. Plus, I can guarantee you that not all of those 6000 use the train to go to work in London. Some probably take it to go to work elsewhere, some use it for leisure both in London and elsewhere, and some use it for work in London. It's ridiculous to claim that because 6000 people use a station that's within commuting distance of London daily, every single one of those people must work in London.

[Ameecher]

I fail to see how Princes Risborough is the same Urban Area: http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=high+wy ... m&t=m&z=12

Anyway, you could of course provide the figures of working people in High Wycombe, it was after all you that was trooping out the claim that the majority of people work in London, surely you didn't make that claim without figures?

[Dave]

As for figure on the employed population of the town, Look it up...

I did. It proved you wrong.

[Ameecher]

They are not the same Urban Area though. They are two distinct towns with countryside in between!

[Dave]

And on top of that Princes Risborough has its own railway station, so any figures for travelling to London by rail will be offset anyway. Fool.

[Ameecher]

I fail to see how Princes Risborough is the same Urban Area: http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=high+wy ... m&t=m&z=12

Anyway, you could of course provide the figures of working people in High Wycombe, it was after all you that was trooping out the claim that the majority of people work in London, surely you didn't make that claim without figures?

There are part of the same LGA for a start

Also, I stated a lot of people Work in London, but most do not

As for figure on the employed population of the town, Look it up...

You just said that no one has provided YOU with a figure and then you tell us to look it up.

[Ameecher]

Quit moving the goal posts! They're not the same place!

Oh and I suggest you

Look it up...

[Kevo00]

My point is that a lot of the South East (including High Wycombe) works in London (which will rise as times goes by)

It might rise in time but you've just been shown that its a very small percentage at present.

Why would transporting more people to work in London, when it would be more expensive to do so than have them work locally, be a good idea?

[Chris]

I do agree that most do not work in London, a lot of the number of working people (a figure which I am not been given) do, if not then a lot of people go for visits, you also forgot to include Princes Risborough (which is part of the same urban area)

Well that is a complete lie... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Wycombe_Urban_Area. I would suggest that you shut up, as you've no idea what Wycombe is like. Absolutely none. I believe you are confusing the Wycombe Urban Area with the area covered by the Wycombe District Council, which does cover Princes Risborough. But there was a reason I used the WUA population and that was because all of the people in that area would use Wycombe station. And yes I do know that Marlow and Bourne End have a stations, however commuters wouldn't use it as they would have to change/there are a few through trains in the morning, but there are very few and they are very short, hence the only relevant station is Wycombe.

Oh and in Buckinghamshire ~59% are 20-65 if I remember correctly. I'll find the Bucks CC document if you want*. Taking that, a working population of 69,000. Taking the 3.2% unemployment figure that we already know, that leaves 66,000.

If we now go back to the 4,800 figure (which we know is an overestimate) and then add on the ~3 services from Marlow/Bourne End-Paddington of 3 coaches, that makes an extra 900 people (again at 100 people per coach), so a total of 5,700. Again, taking the numbers of passengers a year from Cookham, Bourne End and Marlow and dividing by 365 gives 1,800, so we can again see that the 900 is somewhat overestimated.

5,700+5,000 driving = 10,700/66,000 = 16%. Still not a huge percentage and still an overestimate.

Of course you could include the knowledge of someone who lives here. Out of all of the working adults I know, only one works in London regularly and he works for the Metropolitan Police.

My point is that a lot of the South East (including High Wycombe) works in London (which will rise as times goes by)

And my point is that that is clearly wrong. Not that many do.

*Edit:

and a slightly lower proportion aged 20 - 65 than the England average but a proportion comparable with the South East (59%).

http://www.buckscc.gov.uk/assets/conten ... 0Bucks.pdf, 3rd page.

[Chris]

Firstly the article you linked up states that the High Wycombe Urban Area is part of the London Communter Belt

No it doesn't the closest it gets to saying that is saying that 1/3 of the County of Buckinghamshire is part of the Metropolitan Green Belt.

Also while I don't live ther I have visited on a number of times.

Wow, really? Well done, that's such an achievement! I've visited Southampton, but that didn't give me enough information to declare what its employment demographic is.

So while a lot of people do not work in London, its got enough people to be considered part of it (if at the edge of it), but since it is only 45 mins from London, that will rise

How have you deduced that? You admit that not many people work in London (10% tops) and then say that it is in London. Also it is now 25 minutes from London.