Russia-Ukraine Conflict

[kamnet]

I very much suspect that Putin has been intervening since at least October.

[vear]

I'm not saying it for the Putin administration, but given the situation during the revolution (even before Putin decided to reveal his fist), the survey you have posted are more or less void, because the situation has profoundly changed.

To be fair, it would have been better if the organisation working on that survey could have visited Crimea and do it again before Putin intervenes.

Sure it's changed. Conducting a referendum after a torrent of propaganda and power demonstration has been poured upon Crimean citizens is nothing more than a farce.

If you missed out, the propaganda spread over the peninsula looked roughly like this (copy and paste needed, due to referrer check):

Code: Select all

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Crimea-Russian-Propaganda.jpg

There even used to be an official website with similar content, but it was taken down after the referendum. Besides, Crimean citizens didn't protest when Yanukovych was allegedly getting Ukraine closer to the EU (now we all know he never really intended to, so Putin didn't intervene, but most of the planet didn't know that at the time), so the outcome of Maidan and revolution in Kiev should be virtually irrelevant to Crimea.

[Zakos]

Just saw an interview of Obama regarding whether or not Romney was right about Putin. Let it go, guys.

[vear]

Actual results of Crimean referendum leaked to the Web accidentally (somehow they were posted on one of Russian governmental websites for a brief moment). As it turned out, 50% of voters were for joining Crimea into Russian federation. However, attendance was as low as 30%, making it effectively 15% of Crimean population being definitely for the Russian option.
Quite a difference when compared to the official results, isn't it?

[siu238X]

Actual results of Crimean referendum leaked to the Web accidentally (somehow they were posted on one of Russian governmental websites for a brief moment). As it turned out, 50% of voters were for joining Crimea into Russian federation. However, attendance was as low as 30%, making it effectively 15% of Crimean population being definitely for the Russian option.
Quite a difference when compared to the official results, isn't it?

Or to put it simply, Putin is lying and the World has the *responsibility* to stop him by all means, isn't it?

[michael blunck]

Actual results of Crimean referendum leaked to the Web accidentally (somehow they were posted on one of Russian governmental websites for a brief moment).

No conspiration needed. That information is on the web pages of the "Council under the President of the Russian Federation for Civil Society and Human Rights".

As it turned out, 50% of voters were for joining Crimea into Russian federation. However, attendance was as low as 30%, making it effectively 15% of Crimean population being definitely for the Russian option.

Numbers given there are 50-80% turnout for Sevastopol, and 50-60% for Crimea, with a voter participation of 30-50%:

подавляющее большинство жителей Севастополя проголосовали на референдуме за присоединение к России (явка 50-80 %), в Крыму по разным данным за присоединение к России проголосовали 50-60 % избирателей при общей явке в 30-50 %;

Quite a difference when compared to the official results, isn't it?

The delegation did not investigate referendum results by looking into the voting papers, they held interviews with "survey participants and citizens", but neither specify with whom or with how many they spoke:

По мнению практически всех опрошенных специалистов и граждан

[edit 05/09/2014]
According to a pair of new surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center in Ukraine and Russia, Crimean inhabitants seem to be content with the referendum held in march:

Crimean residents are almost universally positive toward Russia. At least nine-in-ten have confidence in Putin (93%) and say Russia is playing a positive role in Crimea (92%). Confidence in Obama is almost negligible at 4%, and just 2% think the U.S. is having a good influence on the way things are going on the Crimean peninsula. [...]

For their part, Crimeans seem content with their annexation by Russia. Overwhelming majorities say the March 16th referendum was free and fair (91%) and that the government in Kyiv ought to recognize the results of the vote (88%).

http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/des ... e-country/

So far for opinion polls ...
[/edit]

regards
Michael

[Wahazar]

Apologies to all who may feel disguised reading my previous post. It was not my intention to claim that Putin==Hitler.

After few months I realised, that my apologies were, unfortunately, precocious.
Situation in 2014 is very similar to 1938 case. In both cases, we can observe "boiling frog" syndrome.
If you start to heat jar of water with frog inside, poor animal will be unaware of temperature increase and finally would die.

Temperature increase before II WW:
12.III.1938 - Austrian Anschluss, breaking Treaty of Versailles.
IX.1938: German "little green men" make unrest in Czechoslovakia.
29.IX.1938: Munich agreement (betrayal), Sudetenland taken, federalisation of Czechoslovakia.
Czechoslovakia was allied by treaty with France, and Great Britain was in turn allied with France, so both countries would be obliged to help Czechoslovakia if it was attacked. And what they gained instead? Deep concern?
What next?
14 III 1939 ?
1 IX 1939 ?
17 IX 1939 ? - today is 75 anniversary of USSR invasion called "protecting the Ukrainian and Belarusian minorities of eastern Poland".
Same arguments today in East Ukraine.

[Wahazar]

Temperature increase before II WW:
12.III.1938 - Austrian Anschluss, breaking Treaty of Versailles.
IX.1938: German "little green men" make unrest in Czechoslovakia.
29.IX.1938: Munich agreement (betrayal), Sudetenland taken, federalisation of Czechoslovakia.
Czechoslovakia was allied by treaty with France, and Great Britain was in turn allied with France, so both countries would be obliged to help Czechoslovakia if it was attacked. And what they gained instead? Deep concern?
What next?
14 III 1939 ?
1 IX 1939 ?
17 IX 1939 ? - today is 75 anniversary of USSR invasion called "protecting the Ukrainian and Belarusian minorities of eastern Poland".
Same arguments today in East Ukraine.

Hate to say, my predictions were correct
It is outrageous to see all these Ukrainian cities bombed by Russian army.
Also terrifying to see Russia becoming another North Korea, puppet of China.

[siu238X]

Also terrifying to see Russia becoming another North Korea, puppet of China.

I found many Westerners seem to have a very high regard of my country, by denouncing Russia as a puppet of it

Many in my city as well as surrounding areas (mainly Taiwan) tend to see the relationship as the reverse.

EDIT: I also see North Korea a more independent country than many claim them to be. IMHO North Korea intimidates China as much as other countries, just in a different manner.

[Wahazar]

I found many Westerners seem to have a very high regard of my country, by denouncing Russia as a puppet of it

I didn't said it is China puppet now, (however I was shocked during my trip from Russia to China by huge contrast between let say Blagowieszczensk and Heihe and it was in 2004, guess even greater differences by now).
However, due to collapse of Russian economy there is chance for China to buy cheap lot of assets. Also China would be the only meaningful export direction.
Russia is important reservoir of resources for China, until now there was some kind of equilibrium, raw materials for processed goods, but once Russia is weakened and can't afford processed goods, China need to find another way to secure deliveries. And Russia have no bargain freedom here. So it become a China puppet.

Also current antidemocratic measures (15 years jail for speaking truth, cutting off all independent media) make NK vibes.

And North Korea is (and was, from the beginning of the Korean proxy war) deliberately a puppet of continental China, without China aid and unbalanced trade, this country would collapse, which is undesirable because it is buffer state (and also reservoir of cheap labor). Of course there are some disturbances of Sino-Korean relations (due to Nukes, Covid etc) but generally N.Korea is dependent economically mostly on China.
It is what I call "puppet". If you depend economically on one state, you can kick and scratch, but must to obey this state in the longer term.

[sevenfm]

As far as I know, not only China wants to trade with Russia, but also India, Pakistan, Turkey (NATO member), all South America and Africa, they don't support sanctions. South Korea said they will trade with some limitations. Also most of western companies didn't left Russia completely, they just suspended work here and even continue to pay salaries, in fact just waiting for the active period to end.
As for North Korea vibes, right now I watch on youtube CNN, Euronews and BBC, they all available here. I wonder if people in Europe can watch RT or Russian officials on youtube, just to know what Russian official position is, from the first hand.
Also freedom of speech seems a bit unpopular today in Europe:

The Czech Republic's chief prosecutor has warned that expressing support for Russia’s attack on Ukraine could be a criminal offence, punishable by imprisonment.

Public support for Russia govt attracts 3 years jail term in Czech Republic

Speaking of 2004 impressions, many people don't realize that Russia changed greatly since then, for example:

The UN has published its global cities ranking for 2022, and has awarded Moscow the top spot among large cities for quality of life and infrastructure, commending the metropolis for its transportation and its citizens’ well-being.

https://worldmark.world/un-named-moscow ... y-of-life/

[Chrill]

Be aware that a Transport forum may not be the best place to discuss a Russian invasion of a sovereign nation. Please be respectful of individuals. We are not interested in semantics, there are better places to discuss that.

[sevenfm]

Maybe just close this topic then? Because according to it's name it's exactly about this conflict.

[Chrill]

This topic does not concern the current invasion, it concerns the Crimean peninsula invasion of 2014. At least it originally did.

[siu238X]

Be aware that a Transport forum may not be the best place to discuss a Russian invasion of a sovereign nation. Please be respectful of individuals. We are not interested in semantics, there are better places to discuss that.

This particular board is "off-topic" so I thought all discussions are allowed as long as they align with the general rules. Admittedly though I do discuss politics somewhere else.

The only reason I reply in this (old) thread is because I found a statement looking inaccurate to me.

[siu238X]

I found many Westerners seem to have a very high regard of my country, by denouncing Russia as a puppet of it

I didn't said it is China puppet now, (however I was shocked during my trip from Russia to China by huge contrast between let say Blagowieszczensk and Heihe and it was in 2004, guess even greater differences by now).
However, due to collapse of Russian economy there is chance for China to buy cheap lot of assets. Also China would be the only meaningful export direction.
Russia is important reservoir of resources for China, until now there was some kind of equilibrium, raw materials for processed goods, but once Russia is weakened and can't afford processed goods, China need to find another way to secure deliveries. And Russia have no bargain freedom here. So it become a China puppet.

Also current antidemocratic measures (15 years jail for speaking truth, cutting off all independent media) make NK vibes.

And North Korea is (and was, from the beginning of the Korean proxy war) deliberately a puppet of continental China, without China aid and unbalanced trade, this country would collapse, which is undesirable because it is buffer state (and also reservoir of cheap labor). Of course there are some disturbances of Sino-Korean relations (due to Nukes, Covid etc) but generally N.Korea is dependent economically mostly on China.
It is what I call "puppet". If you depend economically on one state, you can kick and scratch, but must to obey this state in the longer term.

On surface you are right, but China is very subservient in international matters. It is the biggest abstainer among the UN Security Council Permanent Members, and whenever it vetoes it almost always follows Russia.

North Korea knows very well that its dependency on Chinese economy is not the real reason that China continues to support it -- China needs a buffer state above anything else. Back in the Wikileaks documents a decade ago we already knew that China could have allowed South Korea to unite the peninsula were it not for the US military presence. Frankly, no puppet state behaves so bratty like North Korea.