New Bus

JamieLei · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:11 pm

The average price of a brand new bus is £250,000. A new car is £14,000.

A well maintained bus lasts 20 years, whereas a car will only last about 7. Therefore a bus will cost £90,000 for the lifetime of a car.

If the average occupancy of a car is 1.34, a bus only needs to carry 6 people to be more cost effective than a car. Of course, the bus costs more to run and requries a driver, but loadings are far higher than 6. Plus it's carrying people all day so its daily carrying capacity is far far higher than the number of seats.

So if buses are so cost effective, then are trains (at £1.5m per carriage) or trams (£2m per tram) as cost effective?...

PikkaBird · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 3:23 pm

More cost effective for whom? Apples and oranges.

doktorhonig · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:42 pm

I think there are mainly three reasons why trams can be even more cost-efficient:

1) They last even longer. In Vienna there are up 40-year-old trams, and they are slowly being sold to other cities, mainly Krakow, Katowice and Miskolc. The main reason why they are sold, is that they are not well accessible for people with wheelchairs or baby buggies. They still work in those cities, and I think they will use them for another 20 years at least.

2) About 200 people fit into one tram (sitting+standing) officially. During rush hour there are even more - but that's the same for buses.

3) They run on electricity while most buses run on fossil fuel. With electricity we at least have a chance to be sustainable.

But there's still one thing: 7 years for a car? That's maybe the average age when a car is being sold by the first owner, but if a car isn't involved in an accident, it will most likely last longer. Mine is 12. And since I don't drive much, I expect it to last at least 5 years from now.

A321Pilot · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 7:30 pm

doktorhonig wrote:

2) About 200 people fit into one tram (sitting+standing) officially. During rush hour there are even more - but that's the same for buses.

The Ones in Manchester say they have a capacity of 208 Passenger's (Sat and Stood). I Imagine it is closer to 300 in rush hour.

JamieLei · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:01 pm

Of course there are lots of advantages to trams compared to buses. Journey times are usually quicker (except in Hiroshima - I've never been on such an excruciatingly slow tram in my life) and they attract many passengers who wouldn't ride a bus. But in terms of cost, it's difficult to justify economically, especially when the Midland Metro struggles to break even.

A321Pilot wrote:

208 Passenger's (Sat and Stood)

(oh now come on! That's unacceptable!)

Geo Ghost · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:34 pm

JamieLei wrote:

So if buses are so cost effective, then are trains (at £1.5m per carriage) ... as cost effective?...

I would say trains are perhaps more cost effective on that one as they carry a great more many people over much longer distances and a bloody lot faster as well. Buses are more convenient maybe and can travel to more places but they're always consuming fuel where as (most) trains are only consuming the largest amount of power when on the move.

Hmm, I'm pretty intrigued by this now

JamieLei · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:48 pm

Trains and trams require the infrastructure whereas roads need to be built anyway though.

The investments to make such transport routes are gigantic - £18 billion for Crossrail! I do wonder if the government believes such projects will pay part of the construction cost off, let alone break even when operating them.

Ameecher · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 8:53 pm

Buses become s*** when you make them a guided busway...

[/train spotter wants railway laid everywhere]

doktorhonig · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:04 pm

Has anyone more information on maintenance costs of trams vs. buses?

btw. according to this article, the 40-year-old trams were sold for 300k Euro. That's about the cost of a bus, if Jamie's correct. I'll try to find out some bus prices.

JamieLei wrote:

The investments to make such transport routes are gigantic - £18 billion for Crossrail! I do wonder if the government believes such projects will pay part of the construction cost off, let alone break even when operating them.

That's because of the tunnels. You wouldn't need those for a simple tram.

A current example from Vienna:
extension of a line by 4,5km with 11 stops: 50 million Euros

That's actually pretty cheap.

APDAF · **Joined:** Sun Jun 22, 2008 12:26 pm **Posts:** 2402

Yes, but that is not the UK where we have the "Gods of health and safety".

Class 165 · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 10:45 pm

APDAF wrote:

Yes, but that is not the UK where we have the "Gods of health and safety".

So you would prefer to get on a tram which had no crumple zones? While some health and safety legislation is over the top, the vast majority is sensible, protecting people against businesses who will be lax on safety to increase profit. Do you see the lifevests on airplanes as 'elf 'n safety gone mad?

FLHerne · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 11:11 pm

Quote:

Buses become s*** when you make them a guided busway...

As a Cambridge resident, I can agree with you on that... :evil:

.

Guided buses have all the disadvantages of railways:
- Expensive
- Easily disrupted - can't go round things easily, can't actually reverse along the busway... :shock:

- Don't go to the right place (neatly passes about a mile from most of the villages on the route)

None of the advantages - capacity, efficiency, comfort...

The Cambridgeshire Guided Busway is now, I suspect, the pioneering example of horizontal potholes.

andel · **Posted:** Sat Apr 21, 2012 11:15 pm

OK, lets look at this in layers.

A new ADL Enviro 400 costs about £180,000. It carries approx 70 people plus wheelchair user.

It does about 6MPG. Lets say fuel is costing £1.40 a litre. 4.5L to a gallon, doing about 130 miles a day, less if around town - lets say 120 miles.
£6.30 per gal, - 20 Gal required in fuel, £126 for fuel. Ignore BSOG.

That is a lot. So - next we look at wear and tear, lets assume its about 50p a mile. £60 a day, wear and tear, servicing etc. Add another £50 a day to insure, driver at £140 (pensions included)... £326 to run a bus.

So, it has to be profitable - average fare of £2.20 single for my example route. That bus needs to carry 150 fare paying passengers to break even.

But hang on - it doesn't. Bus pass holders don't pay. The reimbursement rules on a concessionary pass is that the bus operator must be no better or no worse off as if the scheme hadn't have existed. If the scheme didn't exist, pass holders would pay half fare - £1.10. So, if we calculate using the DfT rules, the operator might see about 50% of that half fare to ensure fuel and wear and tear is covered for that person. 60 pence per passenger.

So, to be profitable, assuming loading pre-09:30 of 70 people @ £2.20 each - £154 so far. The bus must now carry 287 pensioners to break even.

Sod £180k on a new bus - think I'll buy something second hand from Ensign.

supermop · **Posted:** Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:40 am

I've heard that for the US at least, the average car stays on the road 17 years plenty of 80s and early 90s cars around - and not just as rare collectors items. Thats with more road salt as well, so more rust, and more extremes of temperature. I'd imagine that in Europe, or at least England, the average usable lifespan could be even greater. Each owner likely only owns the car for about 7 years though.

That said, if you can get five friends to go in on it, why not just buy a bus - draw lots for who has to drive and stock a fridge of beers for the commute for everyone else!

PikkaBird · **Posted:** Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:24 am

andel wrote:

So, to be profitable, assuming loading pre-09:30 of 70 people @ £2.20 each - £154 so far. The bus must now carry 287 pensioners to break even.

Now take into account the social, economic and environmental costs of those 70 people driving to work in peak hour traffic, and those fewer-than-287 pensioners not being able to get to where they're going at all. Public transport doesn't make a profit from its users - Translink here in South-East Queensland is over 75% taxpayer subsidised - but that doesn't mean it's not a good idea.

Quote:

Trains and trams require the infrastructure whereas roads need to be built anyway though.

Why do the roads "need to be built anyway"? Why is road infrastructure seen as necessary and unavoidable, while rail is a frivolous extravagance?

andel · **Posted:** Sun Apr 22, 2012 8:54 am

PikkaBird wrote:

andel wrote:

So, to be profitable, assuming loading pre-09:30 of 70 people @ £2.20 each - £154 so far. The bus must now carry 287 pensioners to break even.

Now take into account the social, economic and environmental costs of those 70 people driving to work in peak hour traffic, and those fewer-than-287 pensioners not being able to get to where they're going at all. Public transport doesn't make a profit from its users - Translink here in South-East Queensland is over 75% taxpayer subsidised - but that doesn't mean it's not a good idea.

In Essex we support a lot of services too - its not the social element I'm questioning - its just the idea of how much it costs to run a service before you break a profit!

JamieLei · **Posted:** Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:49 pm

andel wrote:

In Essex we support a lot of services too - its not the social element I'm questioning - its just the idea of how much it costs to run a service before you break a profit!

Yeah I agree.

Interesting numerical analysis though. Did you count the commuters making return trips and also full fare passengers in the off peak though? Although my local bus route does get loaded up with pensioners in the middle of the day, I'd be surprised if they comprise more than 60% of any bus, particularly as they don't tend to go upstairs (and the upstairs is never empty either).

FooBar · **Posted:** Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:38 pm

My car stops at my house and at my destination. Public transport doesn't.
My car costs me around 2700 euros per year for around 10000 km, including petrol, insurance and maintenance (not counting devaluation of the thing itself). An unlimited public transport pass would set me back 4190.50 euros a year 2nd class or 6697.50 a year 1st class.

I consider my car first class, as it's clean, has plenty legroom, builtin audio system, plenty cargo hold, etc. So I'm already saving 4000 euros per year, which should be plenty for devaluation and parking. And that's assuming I only use the car for myself (which mostly is indeed the case, so that's a correct assumption).

So public transport may be cost efficient, but certainly not for me as a customer. End of discussion.

andel · **Posted:** Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:46 pm

JamieLei wrote:

andel wrote:

In Essex we support a lot of services too - its not the social element I'm questioning - its just the idea of how much it costs to run a service before you break a profit!

Yeah I agree.

Interesting numerical analysis though. Did you count the commuters making return trips and also full fare passengers in the off peak though? Although my local bus route does get loaded up with pensioners in the middle of the day, I'd be surprised if they comprise more than 60% of any bus, particularly as they don't tend to go upstairs (and the upstairs is never empty either).

I worked on the basis of all fares being singles, that peak singles are from £3.50, made to be an average fare, calculated from that of singles, returns and day network tickets issued.

Pensioners can be up to 100% of a bus sometimes - I based my analysis on a typical urban services in a borough, with a network ticket and mostly fixed fare pricing.

What I didn't factor in was BSOG - fuel rebate essentially, nor did I factor in items such as pensions, corporation tax and so on.

JamieLei · **Posted:** Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:27 pm

Ah fair enough. Of course £3.50 in Birmingham is almost the cost of a return or day ticket anyway. Not to mention that season tickets are heavily discounted.

What I do understand from BCW is just how important BSOG is. With the current cuts and operators up in arms, it must be quite a significant amount.

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